High-stakes by-elections seen as 2027 political litmus test for Ruto, United Opposition

The constituencies of Mbeere North, Kasipul, Magarini and Malava are like any other more than 200 electoral units designated by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission across the country.

However, on Thursday this week, the outcome of political contests in the by-election in these electoral units could determine the trajectory of politics in the next General Election.

Political pundits view the November 27 by-elections as the first showdown between President William Ruto’s broad-based government and the United Opposition, stitched together by his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, ahead of the 2027 General Election.

They argue that the mini-polls will become a national litmus test, pitting the broad-based government against a newly united opposition led by Gachagua and bolstered by Kalonzo Musyoka, Fred Matiang’i, Eugene Wamalwa, Martha Karua, George Natembeya, Justin Muturi, among others.

The elections will be held on the same day for the Senate seat in Baringo County and for the National Assembly seats in Banissa, Kasipul, Magarini, Malava, Mbeere North, and Ugunja constituencies.

According to Amnesty International Kenya, these by-elections could serve as the most important stress test of the country’s electoral system before 2027.

“By the end of November, Kenyans will be able to measure voter confidence in the process, the independence and professionalism of the electoral commission and police, the capacity of political parties to deploy agents, and the effectiveness of civic actors in observing and safeguarding electoral integrity,” Amnesty International Kenya said.

Political analyst Samuel Owida told The Eastleigh Voice that top politicians are taking the by-elections seriously because their outcome could determine how Kenyans are going to vote in the 2027 General Election.

“All players want their camps to win in these by-elections because of the obvious reasons. They will determine who has strength in the ground and who does not. No serious politician wants to be seen as losing,” said Owida.

In Mbeere North constituency, the campaign has intensified into a high-stakes political contest between Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and Gachagua.

Gachagua is rallying support for Democratic Party (DP) candidate Newton Kariuki Ndegwa, while Prof. Kindiki is backing UDA candidate Leonard Muriuki Wamuthende.

Gachagua argues that defeating the UDA candidate would send President Ruto a clear message that he has lost the support of a voter-rich region of Mt Kenya, which overwhelmingly backed him during the 2022 General Election.

The parliamentary seat for Mbeere North constituency became vacant after Geoffrey Ruku assumed the role of Cabinet Secretary, Ministry of Public Service, Human Capital Development and Special Programmes.

Both Deputy President Prof Kindiki and his predecessor, Gachagua, are aiming to strengthen their influence and assert dominance over the votes in the Mt. Kenya region.

In Ugunja constituency, ODM is poised for an easy victory in its own heartland. Its candidate, Moses Omondi, who is supported by the broad-based government, is favoured to succeed Opiyo Wandayi, who is currently serving as Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum. However, in the Kasipul constituency, the Movement is expected to face a severe credibility test, as its candidate, Boyd Were, is locked in a tight race against independent contender Philip Aroko.

Other Topics To Read

• Politics
• Headlines
• magarini by-election
• by-elections
• Mbeere North by-election
• Kasipul by-election
• Ugunja by-election
• Malava by-election
• IEBC by-elections
• Banissa by-election
• High-stakes by-elections seen as 2027 political litmus test for Ruto
• United Opposition

In Western Kenya, the Malava parliamentary seat is also another battleground between UDA and the United Opposition. On the UDA side, President Ruto’s confidant, Farouk Kibet, is leading the campaign for the broad-based government’s candidate, David Ndakwa. He is facing Seth Panyako of the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K).

The Malava by-election is a significant test for Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi because its outcome will serve as a litmus test of his political influence and ability to deliver votes for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party in the Western Kenya region ahead of the 2027 polls.

Political scientist Chrispory Omollo argues that a UDA victory would validate Mudavadi's standing as the senior-most state official from the region and prove his capacity to rally the Luhya vote behind President William Ruto's administration.

“A loss could significantly dent his influence, diminish his value within the Kenya Kwanza alliance, and raise questions about his role in the President's re-election strategy for 2027,” argued Omollo.

The by-election has become a proxy war with other political players in the region, such as DAP-K leader George Natembeya, who is backing a rival candidate (Seth Panyako). The result will help determine who holds the actual sway over the "Luhya vote".

In Kasipul, politics has taken a new dimension after Homa Bay Deputy Governor Oyugi Magwanga endorsed an Independent candidate.

Magwanga defied his boss, Governor Gladys Wanga, who is apparently leading campaigns for ODM candidate Boyd Were. Wanga is the national chairperson of ODM, and the party had instructed members to support its candidate.

The deputy governor, who was elected on a joint ticket with Wanga, defied the party and endorsed Philip Aroko's candidacy.

“Residents of Kasipul should not be coerced into voting for a particular person. We can’t allow outsiders to mess with the by-election after they interfered with ODM nominations,” Magwanga said.

Speaking during a rally in Wire, the deputy governor claimed that the nomination process that settled on Boyd Were as the ODM flag bearer was not free and fair. He argued that illegible members of the party and constituency, including pupils, participated in the ODM primary.